Labor Market in the U.S. Holds Firm Despite Slight Rise in Jobless Claims
In a week marked by heightened market sensitivity, U.S. economic data offered a dose of stability. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week rose slightly to 222,000, just above the anticipated 221,000. While the figure represents a modest increase from last week’s 216,000, the uptick was largely in line with expectations and signals that the U.S. job market remains on solid footing.
Investors appeared largely unbothered by the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed over 80 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted gains, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallying nearly 1%, driven by renewed strength in large-cap growth stocks.
Market watchers interpreted the data as a sign of a resilient economy—strong enough to avoid recession, yet cool enough to keep inflation in check.
Nifty Pauses Rally, Faces Resistance as Volatility Creeps In
Back home, Indian markets took a more cautious tone.
The Nifty 50, which had been riding a seven-day rally, showed signs of hesitation on Thursday. The index formed a “hanging man” candlestick pattern—often seen as a warning signal after an uptrend—indicating possible exhaustion among buyers.
Nifty is currently trading in a narrow range between 24,100 and 24,400, with 24,400–24,500 emerging as a critical resistance zone. A breakout above this level could reignite bullish momentum, but repeated failures to breach it have so far invited selling pressure.
At the lower end, 24,160 remains a key support, with technical analysts flagging this as the line in the sand for near-term direction.
India VIX Rises Above 16: A Signal of Caution
Volatility, too, is on the rise. The India VIX, a barometer of market sentiment and expected volatility, edged back above the 16 mark—indicating growing uncertainty.
Options data suggests a likely short-term range of 24,000–24,500 for the Nifty, and traders are being advised to remain cautious amid the choppy price action. As false breakouts become more frequent, retail investors in particular should tread carefully to avoid getting trapped in these volatile zones.
Bank Nifty Under Pressure: Resistance Persists Near 55,600
The Bank Nifty, often seen as a market trendsetter, is struggling to maintain upward momentum.
Repeated rejections near the 55,600–55,700 resistance area have raised concerns among traders. While bulls attempted to push higher, strong selling at upper levels kept the index in check. Unless Bank Nifty decisively breaks above 55,700, the current trend may remain capped.
On the downside, 55,300 and 54,990 are key support levels. A close below these zones could open the door for a sharper correction.
Geopolitical Tensions Add an Extra Layer of Risk
Markets are also keeping a close eye on escalating geopolitical tensions.
Rising friction with Pakistan, including new restrictions on Indian airspace, has cast a shadow over broader sentiment. These developments disrupted a planned diplomatic visit to the U.S., where discussions on tariffs and bilateral trade were expected to take place.
While the immediate market reaction has been muted, investors are watching closely for any escalation that could dent global risk appetite.
Sensex Stuck in Range: 80,000 Remains a Psychological Hurdle
The Sensex, too, is struggling to find direction, trading sideways with 80,050 acting as a psychological resistance.
Multiple attempts to push above this mark have been met with selling pressure, with key sellers becoming increasingly active around this zone. Unless the index closes above 80,050, a sustained breakout appears unlikely.
Support lies between 79,727 and 79,600, and a breach below these levels could invite fresh weakness.
Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Friday’s Trade
- Nifty 50
- Support: 24,160 / 24,100
- Resistance: 24,400 / 24,500
- Bank Nifty
- Support: 55,300 / 54,990
- Resistance: 55,600 / 55,700
- Sensex
- Support: 79,727 / 79,600
- Resistance: 80,050 / 80,200
Outlook: Markets in ‘Wait and Watch’ Mode
With Wall Street navigating soft economic data, Asia facing geopolitical tremors, and India’s indices stalling at key resistance zones, markets appear to be in consolidation mode.
The mood is neither overtly bullish nor bearish—reflecting a collective pause for clarity.
Until a definitive breakout occurs—especially above the resistance zones outlined above—market participants are better off trading with caution rather than conviction.
As one seasoned trader put it, “The trend is your friend—but only once it confirms it’s showing up.”
