Markets End Lower Amid Expiry Volatility and Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The Indian stock market ended Thursday’s session on a subdued note, caught in a tight range as investors grappled with monthly expiry pressures and escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. After a strong run in recent sessions, the markets took a breather, weighed down by global uncertainties and a sudden spike in domestic risk sentiment.
The BSE Sensex opened at 24,277, briefly touched an intraday high of 24,347, but was unable to hold gains, eventually slipping to a low of 24,216 before closing at 24,246, down 82 points. The Nifty 50, too, lost ground after a steady climb in recent days, closing down 315 points, reflecting broader caution among investors.
Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty shed 168 points, settling at 55,000, while Bank Nifty Futures finished at 99,800—signaling pressure across financial names. Market breadth tilted negative with 1,441 stocks declining, outpacing the 1,404 advancers, indicative of widespread profit booking.
Rising Tensions at the Border
Investor sentiment took a sharp turn after reports emerged of a terror attack in Pahalgam. In a swift and decisive move, the Indian government halted the Indus Water Treaty and shut down the Attari border crossing, signaling a strong diplomatic stance against Pakistan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed a firm response, stating that terrorists would be dealt with in a way “they never imagined.” These developments have stoked fears of potential military escalation, adding a layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market landscape.
High-level meetings were convened in Delhi late Wednesday night, and while no official announcement of military action has been made, sources suggest that India is considering all options on the table. As a result, markets remain on edge, bracing for any sudden developments that could impact investor confidence.
Sectoral Pulse: Cement and Pharma Offer Support
Despite the broader weakness, pockets of strength emerged in pharma and cement stocks, providing a measure of support to the indices.
- Ultratech Cement rose over 2% after reporting solid quarterly results, leading gains in the cement pack. Positive earnings also boosted stocks like India Cements, JK Lakshmi Cement, and Shree Cement, all of which ended in the green.
- The pharma sector saw renewed buying interest, with Netco Pharma rallying nearly 7% and Davis Labs up 5% after beating street estimates. Dr. Reddy’s, Janta Pharma, and Grasim also posted modest gains.
Notable Laggards and Midcap Movers
However, several frontline and midcap stocks came under selling pressure:
- Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, and IndusInd Bank fell by 2% or more, weighed down by mixed earnings and sectoral rotation.
- Barry Energy, after a strong showing yesterday, slipped over 5.5% following a downgrade from a major brokerage. Despite good results, analysts cited weak margin guidance.
- AAP Technologies saw a sharp 13% drop after disappointing earnings, while Kalyan Jewellers, Camfil Homes, and Vijaya Diagnostics were also among notable losers.
On the flip side, midcaps like RBL Bank gained 3.5% post a 15% lending rate hike. Tata Elxsi, Dalmia Bharat, and MTC Software also rallied between 4% to 9%, helping offset some of the broader market drag.
Global Backdrop: Trump Softens Trade Tone
On the international front, former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to soften his earlier aggressive rhetoric on trade tariffs with China, signaling a possible return to the negotiation table. This shift sparked optimism across global equity markets, though its impact on Indian indices was muted amid local concerns.
Trump, known for his protectionist stance, indicated he may scale back plans for high import duties, especially on Chinese goods—providing some relief to global investors who had feared the resurgence of a trade war.
What’s Next for Markets?
While Thursday’s expiry-induced volatility was expected, the geopolitical overhang has introduced a new layer of complexity. The Nifty now faces immediate resistance around 24,400–24,500, while support is seen near 24,100. A sustained move below 24,000 could trigger a deeper correction, though the underlying medium-term trend remains positive.
Analysts suggest that investors adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, particularly for fundamentally strong stocks. “The market is likely to remain range-bound in the near term as it digests both geopolitical risks and earnings data,” one strategist noted. “Volatility is here to stay, but this is also when long-term opportunities are created.”
The Road Ahead: Stay Nimble, Stay Informed
As we step into the final days of April, investors should brace for heightened volatility. With global cues turning cautiously optimistic and domestic developments taking center stage, the market may continue to trade in a consolidation phase.
Tensions along the India-Pakistan border will likely dominate headlines in the coming days. Any military response could cause temporary market dislocation—but also present strategic entry points for patient investors.
For now, the advice is clear: Stay cautious, stay invested, and keep cash ready for opportunity.